Scenario-Based Insights into GCC’s Net-Zero Transition: Balancing Economic Growth with Carbon Management

The GCC region, significantly dependent on hydrocarbon exports, confronts pressing problems stemming from global transitions to net-zero emissions, jeopardizing economic stability and necessitating revolutionary energy and fiscal plans. This paper analyses three scenarios—Business-as-Usual, Renewable Transition, and Carbon Management—to assess their effects on the GCC’s GDP growth, fiscal balance, oil revenues, and carbon emissions from 2025 to 2050. The findings indicate that a deliberate combination of renewable energy investments, carbon capture technologies, and international partnerships produces the most equitable benefits, fostering economic growth while minimizing emissions.