Application of Analytical Probabilistic Models in Urban Runoff Control Systems’ Planning and Design: A Review

Urban stormwater is known to cause a myriad of problems, ranging from flooding to water quality degradations. This paper provides an extensive review of analytical probabilistic model (APMs) used in the design of urban runoff control systems. APMs are closed-form mathematical expressions representing a long-term system’s output performance derived from the probability distribution of the system’s input variables. Once derived, the APMs are easy to handle, allow for sensitive analysis, and can be co-opted into optimization frameworks. The implementation of APM in the planning and design of runoff control systems will not only help address the runoff quantity and quality problems of urban stormwater, but will also go a long way in optimizing the benefits derived from the systems. This paper reviews studies that document the negative impacts of urbanization on runoff quantity and quality, and the best management practices (BMPs) used to mitigate the impacts. Three design methodologies used in urban stormwater control systems were reviewed. A detailed review of research on the development and use of APMs in urban stormwater management in various runoff control systems is presented, and recommendations are proffered.