A hybrid CARIMA-SARIMA-logistic model for multi-scenario hydrogen demand forecasting: Insights from global economies

This study introduces an innovative hybrid modeling framework, CARIMA-SARIMA-Logistic Distribution (CARIMA-SARIMA-LG), to forecast hydrogen demand across six key global economies—United States, Brazil, Russia, China, India, and Japan—under five distinct scenarios spanning from 2030 to 2050. By integrating the strengths of Cumulative Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (CARIMA) for long-term trends, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) for periodic fluctuations, and logistic distribution for growth saturation, this model offers a dynamic and comprehensive approach to hydrogen demand forecasting. Each scenario, including the Aggressive Transformation Scenario (AGS) and Worst-Case Scenario (WCS), incorporates unique macroeconomic, technological, and policy variables to simulate diverse pathways in the global energy transition. The methodology leverages publicly available datasets from the International Energy Agency (IEA), incorporating critical indicators such as economic growth, population dynamics, technological innovation, policy environments, and energy efficiency metrics. Advanced Python-based preprocessing ensures data robustness, while model validation using metrics like Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Theil’s U Statistic establishes high accuracy and reliability. For instance, the AGS projects exponential growth in hydrogen demand, with China reaching 10,641 PJ by 2050, underscoring its leadership potential in the hydrogen economy. Similarly, Brazil’s hydrogen demand highlights its emerging role as a green hydrogen exporter, projected to reach 290 PJ under AGS. This research advances scholarly understanding by providing a scalable and adaptable framework for hydrogen demand analysis, bridging theoretical modeling with practical policy applications. By capturing the interplay of economic, technological, and policy drivers, the CARIMA-SARIMA-LG model facilitates tailored insights for country-specific planning while offering a global perspective on hydrogen transitions. The findings underscore the critical importance of proactive investment, strategic policy alignment, and technological innovation in accelerating the global hydrogen economy. This study serves as a valuable tool for policymakers, researchers, and industry stakeholders, charting a roadmap for sustainable energy systems and contributing to the global discourse on achieving net-zero emissions.