Navigating global economic turmoil: The dynamics of oil prices, exchange rates, and stock markets in BRICS

The study aims to analyze the co-movement between oil prices, BRICS nations’ exchange rates, and stock markets. Grasping these interrelationships is essential for understanding how global energy price shifts broadly affect the economies, particularly those of developing nations. The study employs wavelet coherency analysis on daily data, examining the association between crude oil (Brent crude), exchange rates (Brazilian Real, Russian Rubble, Indian Rupee, Chinese Yuan, and South African Rand), and stock markets (BOVESPA of Brazil, Moscow Exchange of Russia, Nifty50 of India, Shanghai Composite of China, and JSE FTSE of South Africa) across both temporal and frequency domains. This study reveals strong comovements, especially during periods of global economic instability, such as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. During such periods, oil prices and stock market indices tend to move in tandem, while oil prices and exchange rates show an inverse relationship. The study also reveals a decoupling of crude oil from both share markets and exchange rates during normal economic conditions. This decoupling suggests that outside of a chaotic period, the relationships weaken. However, the co-movements among the variables for China are notably weaker, even during economic upheavals, than in other BRICS nations. Understanding these relationships can aid in informed decision making and strategies in the face of global economic turmoil.