Impact of devaluation on saudi oil exports: The j-curve analysis

This research probes the impact of Exchange Rate (ER) and oil prices on oil-exports of leading OPEC country, Saudi Arabia by using Shin's et al. (2014) non-linear ARDL. We find that world income is helping in increasing Saudi oil-exports and the insignificant impact of ER on oil-exports in linear ARDL is found. Alternatively, a positive ER variable is negatively impacting to oil-exports and an appreciation is result in decrease in oil-exports. Further, in long run devaluation, negative ER, could not help in increasing oilexports. But, short run analysis expose the existence of W-curve instead of J-curve with devaluation in the non-linear ARDL model and J-curve has been found in the linear ARDL model. Positive Oil prices' movement is also helping in raising oil-exports and negative movement has no impact. Lastly, the impacts of both ER and oil-prices have the asymmetrical impacts.