Forecasting the cyclical dynamics of the development territories: Conceptual approaches, models, experiments

The most significant problems of development of some national economies, including Ukraine, are the ensuring balanced economic development of territories (areas or regions). Strengthening unevenness socio-economic development of territories leads to an increase in the threat of disintegration, to the formation of crises, makes it impossible to fully use the potential of regional cooperation. One of the important directions of the solution to this problem is to develop a system for forecasting the dynamics of territories, which is based on the concept of cyclicity evolution of economic systems. The authors propose the basis of the model of the system for forecasting the economic indicators of development territories, taking into account the forming cycle's factors through the use of modern methods of nonlinear dynamics, which can prevent the possibility of formation of the economic crisis. Presents the conceptual position of the system of forecasting the cyclical dynamics of territories, a description of system modules, implemented forecasting models of macroeconomic indicators and indicators of regional development, taking into account the forming cycle's factors. Was carried out an experiment that allowed identifying cyclical components. These components have the greatest impact on the dynamics of development of the territories of Ukraine, perform of analysis the resonance phenomena in the cyclic dynamics of economic indicators, and determine the phases of economic cycles in the forecast period.