Agricultural Exports and Carbon Emissions in China: A Literature Review of Theoretical Foundations, Mechanisms, and Research Gaps

Agriculture is a crucial sector for economic growth in emerging nations and a significant contributor to global carbon emissions. China, a leading agricultural producer and trader, has proactively responded to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) climate action appeal by proposing “Dual Carbon” targets as a national strategy. This review explores existing literature on the impact of agricultural exports on agricultural carbon emissions in China, focusing on energy consumption as a mediating factor, and environmental governance and R&D investment as moderating variables. It introduces a conceptual framework to understand how trade-led agricultural growth interacts with energy use and governance capacity, offering policy implications for balancing agricultural development with environmental goals. The review identifies research gaps and supports strategies to reduce emissions, strengthen governance, and promote innovation in pursuit of China’s climate targets.